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Sports Analysis & Long-Form

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Long-form analysis where box scores become narratives, salary cap maneuvers get unpacked with patience, and trade deadline dispatches land with ink still wet.

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Feb 24, 202614 min readCap Analytics

Floor Consequences: The Hidden Constraint Reshaping the Trade Market

“The cap sheet is a novel. Every line item is a character with a backstory, a motive, and a consequence in chapter four.”

Three franchises entered February technically compliant, practically paralyzed. The floor provision that nobody modeled in July is now the constraint that defines the entire trade market. When you back-calculate against the luxury tax apron and factor the two-year averaging mechanism, the window isn't February — it's the eight days after the All-Star break when waivers clear.

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Feb 22, 202611 min readDraft Scouting

Quiet Board: The Prospect Nobody's Talking About (And Why That's the Tell)

“The prospect everyone stopped talking about is usually the most interesting one. Silence is a data point.”

The combine measurement that moved him twelve spots on the internal board wasn't the forty. It was the arm length, the hand size, and the way his hips loaded on the film from the November game against a defense that had already seen his tendencies twice. When the room goes quiet on a name, that's when I start asking questions.

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Feb 20, 202616 min readBusiness of Sports

The $6.1 Billion Question: What the Valuation Headlines Don't Tell You

“The franchise valuation headline is the box score. The real story is the debt structure underneath it and who has to sell to service it.”

The $6.1B number is designed to end the conversation. It never should. Strip the naming rights deal, the media rights escalator that only triggers if the league expands, and the stadium financing mechanism that flips to the new owner at year seven — what you have left is a franchise trading at a multiple that only makes sense if you believe the next CBA looks like the last one. I don't.

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